期貨風險大嗎？一般人聽到「期貨」這兩個字，第一個反應就是：「那不是賭博嗎？期貨風險超大是可怕商品嗎？聽說很多「玩期貨」的人都賠超多錢的，傾家蕩產的很多耶！」真的！這樣的批評不在少數，連我的岳母剛聽到我做期貨時，希望女兒能快閃離開，不要誤入歧途，善哉善哉！
在期貨界沉浮數十年，看過無數的期貨交易者來來去去，能殘留在這市場上繼續奮戰的，我想不是他的資本夠厚、後台硬、或是夠幸運，而是他清清楚楚知道，期貨並不是「玩期貨」，不是賭博，不是投機，而是戰前做足功課，摸透期貨交易規則，控制槓桿運用，時時刻刻保持期貨風險意識！ 低槓桿的資金控制才是左右整個期貨交易能不能成功最大的關鍵。只有不懂期貨保證金規則、不會控制風險、過度槓桿的人，才會說期貨很危險。
下面就帶各位了解期貨槓桿與保證金、及期貨數字的微妙之處：
一、何謂期貨保證金
二、如何運用期貨槓桿
三、期貨槓桿與保證金的關連性
四、戰勝數字恐懼，期貨不再危險
期貨風險 1. 何謂期貨保證金
前篇有提到期貨保證金的概念，再概要說明一次。
以臺灣加權指數期貨為例，台灣期貨市場最常被交易的兩項商品：大台期貨、小台期貨。
| 大台期貨 | 小台期貨 | |
| 英文代碼 | TX | MTX |
| 原始保證金 | 148,000元 | 37,000元 |
| 維持保證金 | 113,000元 | 28,250元 |
| 交易單位 | 指數1點=200元 | 指數1點=50元 |
以台灣期交所大台期貨為例，跳動一點是200元，現在一口臺指期貨的保證金是148,000元（會依期貨市場波動而做調整）。以今日期貨收盤價12,896點來說，一口大臺期貨的實際價值應該是12,896點*200元/點＝2,579,200元，也就是說，買進一口臺指期貨實際需要257萬9,200元，正因為期貨是用保證金進行交易，意思就是把一部分的資金當作是押金的概念，然後擁有這項商品。
近似股票的融資交易，但又可多空同時進出，才會吸引那麼多人進來躍躍欲試。但需注意的是，若期貨部位虧損太多，導致保證金不足則會有兩種情形 :
1、直接被券商砍倉（部位強制清掉）
2、時間內需把保證金補足，才不會被強制平倉
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期貨風險 2. 如何運用期貨槓桿
如上述，一口將近258萬的合約只需要不到15萬就可進行交易，且不用支付利息等額外支出，交易成本又低於股票交易（股票買賣完成，共需交付交易金額千分之2.85的費用，而融資需另付手續費與利息、交易稅為賣出時課千分之3），而期貨買賣只需付期貨商固定的手續費，期交稅為買進、賣出時按契約總值各課十萬分之2，當然吸引很多人進場交易。
但也不能高興太早，期貨的高槓桿高風險，賠到脫褲也是一般人對於期貨交易的高風險刻版印象。以本金15萬來說，1點200元的大台期貨，跳動個10點就會影響整體資金會超過1%，而10點不過是今日大盤指數（12,896點）的千分之一不到。換個方式說，股票可以融資，通常最多的股票融資是自備4成，可向證金公司借貸6成。
以一家100元的公司股票為例，我們會發現股票融資的槓桿是10萬/4萬＝2.5倍，也就是說，如果股票一根跌停是10％，融資後，虧損就變成10％*2.5＝25％的損失。如果是指數跌10％，買進一口台指期貨，虧損就會變成（12896*200*10％=258,000）。這等於是本金的172％，這就是期貨高槓桿的風險和可怕的地方。
如果適時地運用小台期貨，則槓桿倍數可以減少為1/4倍，就可以相對減低風險。當然，會有人說大台期貨的手續費低於小台期貨，大台期貨一點200元，小台期貨一點50元，槓桿倍數4倍，可是手續費卻只多一倍，交易大台期貨的的C/P值相對較高！在期貨市場上，C/P值高低跟輸贏是兩回事，不僅是交易成本，能不能永續存活下來才是更重要的。走過期貨交易一遭，再回頭看期貨手續費，根本是輕如鴻毛啊！
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期貨風險 3. 期貨槓桿與保證金的關連性
為什麼在期貨市場上，常會有人以訛傳訛說：期貨多可怕，期貨賠錢、傾家蕩產的人占99.9%以上。其實，就是賠錢的比例超過你所能承受的數字，所以做好資金控管，降低槓桿就是一門重要的功課 ! 因此，我們得先了解期貨的槓桿風險與保證金的關係 ，從下圖所示假如您的資金有15萬，以大台保證金每口14萬8千元來計算，只能交易一口大台期貨，當行情發生劇烈震盪，下跌100點，就可能造成13.3%的資金虧損，比例非常大。
但如果降低槓桿，用60萬來交易一口大台期貨，當行情下跌100點，虧損也只占總資金的3.3%，就比較可以接受行情的振盪，所以降低槓桿在期貨交易上，是非常重要的一件事 ! 然而資金控管，對一般投資者來說，執行起來比較困難，因為投資人常一不小心就買太多，看錯又捨不得停損，導致資金快速下滑。幸好市場上有一套WINSMART期貨軟體，能幫助投資人控制交易風險，包括單筆損失上限，每日可接受損失上限，而且都確實嚴格執行，幫你把關期貨交易風險 !
| 以買進一口大台指期貨為例 (目前大台期貨一口保證金為148,000,，15萬本金只能做一口。) | ||||
| 保證金 | 上漲100點獲利 | 獲利% | 下跌100點虧損 | 虧損% |
| 15萬 | 20000元 | 13.3% | -20000元 | -13.3% |
| 60萬 | 20000元 | 3.3% | -20000元 | -3.3% |
期貨槓桿與保證金的關係為何那麼緊密？期貨給人印象最差的就是交易者會因保證金不足而被「追繳」，俗稱「call margin」，若不能在時限內補足保證金，就會被強制平倉，而造成交易者直接損失差價。因投入的資金太少（如上圖的15萬），行情上下刷洗震盪時，保證金很容易造成不足，被掃出場的機率就會大大提高。
買賣期貨時，交易者要明白，雖然一開始的入場費低，但期貨的行情刷洗遠遠超乎自己想像，最終的虧損也可能大於最初投入的資金。若放大槓桿把資金買滿的話，當市場行情不如預期時，虧損往往會高於自己所能承受的數字。因此，「放大槓桿」是期貨交易的潛在風險，若沒有控制好，賺賠就像失速的雲霄飛車一樣，讓你的資金快速下滑。WINSMAR
期貨風險 4. 戰勝數字恐懼，期貨不再危險
現在一口台指期貨的保證金是148,000元 ，一口小型台指期貨的保證金是37,000元，交易期貨時並不是準備所需保證金的錢就足夠了。其實比這個更重要的是，你要知道當買進一口大台時，你到底能承受多少的風險？你到底能有多少本錢且能承受多少的價格衝擊？我們不能控制期貨市場行情的漲跌，但我們能掌握自已對於數字跳動時的心魔。
從交易心理學的觀點來說，其一是如何觀察期貨市場的變化，適時地調整當下的期貨部位；其二則是自我心理調整，也就是如何處理交易期貨過程中的自我心理變化，並與內在的自己對話。兩者是並行的，決定你是否是吃這行飯的重要因素。前者是需要做足功課，關係到如何在市場上比別人快一步做出「有優勢的果斷決定」；後者，則是對於期貨指數的跳動能無所畏懼，攸關進出場／停損點的設置。所謂「對期貨指數跳動能無所畏懼」的根本，就是期貨部位的多寡及保證金槓桿的運用。
我認為期貨最大的風險並不是行情的暴漲暴跌或是系統上操作上的失誤，而是對於期貨淨值跳動的「貪」。小至大小台指期貨的手續費，大至漲跌獲利虧損的數字，都緊密牽引著心魔下的每一次指令。如果能有效支配可用資金、了解你能承受多少的虧損（可賠金額）、維持高於期貨原始保證金的槓桿水位，面對每天的期貨市場上的數字跳動有了心理準備，就不會隨風起舞了。
當然，戰勝期貨數字的恐懼，進而幫助自己釐清「期貨」其實不如大家所謠傳的那麼恐怖了。重點在於怎麼去創造穩定積效，降低槓桿做好資金管理，才是決定自己的期貨交易之路能不能走得長遠的最大關鍵。
看完這篇文章，你是否對期貨風險有進一步了解呢 ? 如果你對期貨交易有興趣，可以參加 WINSMART線上分享會 ，我將與你分享如何透過WINSMART有效控制期貨風險，幫助你做好資金管理，看錯自動停損，看對幫你自動加碼拉開賺賠比 ! 用嚴謹的紀律操作，穩定提升你的交易績效。
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